UBS says it’s ‘time for quality’ with recession near. 10 stocks to buy
Buyers ought to flip their consideration towards high quality shares as market volatility persists and a recession turns into extra seemingly, UBS stated in a be aware this week. The be aware preceded the Federal Reserve’s 25 basis-point benchmark price enhance on Wednesday, however UBS had already assumed the central financial institution would proceed to hike of their month-to-month replace. Markets rapidly soured after Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s feedback following the speed hike resolution. Powell famous that, whereas credit score situations are tightening, the central financial institution had no plans to chop charges anytime quickly. The Dow Jones Industrial Common sank greater than 500 factors Wednesday, whereas the S & P 500 and Nasdaq Composite slid greater than 1% every. The Fed is in a good spot. It’s concurrently attempting to keep away from extra fallout from the dysfunction throughout the banking system whereas addressing inflation. Due to this, UBS thinks shares are prone to stay risky, and buyers ought to flip to high quality names to journey out the storm. “We advocate buyers deal with segments of the market the place earnings development is extra resilient,” UBS head of U.S. equities David Lefkowitz wrote. “On this context, our tactical themes are targeted on prime quality corporations, people who have pricing energy, or are leveraged to long-term development drivers which can be extra insulated from financial development.” UBS highlighted 4 inventory baskets that buyers ought to flip their consideration to, together with one titled “Time for high quality.” It consists of corporations seen as “prime quality” because of noteworthy returns on invested capital, which generally outperform friends when the financial system slows down and nears a recession. Listed here are 10 names that made UBS’ checklist. McDonald’s made the checklist, with UBS noting it is enhancing its operations because of a thinner value construction. UBS additionally highlighted the corporate’s capability to lean into new know-how in addition to well-received promotions and better high quality menu gadgets. Shares of the quick meals big are lagging the S & P 500 this 12 months. Nonetheless, the inventory is up 14% over the previous 12 months, whereas the broader market index has misplaced 10%. MCD 1Y mountain MCD 12-month chart Oil big Exxon Mobil additionally made the checklist, with UBS pointing to the corporate’s exceptionally sturdy steadiness sheet. UBS stated ought to see an increase in money move as the corporate continues to finish tasks. Starbucks , in the meantime, ought to profit largely from the re-opening of China and the comfort of Covid-19 lockdown insurance policies there. UBS additionally famous that Starbucks is efficiently addressing inflation by means of “focused pricing, working efficiencies, and prioritization of discretionary spend.” Shares of the espresso chain are flat 12 months so far, however they’ve popped greater than 17% over the past six months. Microsoft additionally made the checklist. This comes on the heels of of the success of OpenAI’s ChatGPT, and an integration of the chat field into Bing. UBS expects the corporate to proceed to notch wins from rising additional into the cloud market and highlighted its safe revenue margins. Microsoft shares have ripped greater than 16% increased in 2023. UBS highlighted Costco as the corporate sturdy money flows throughout financial downturns. The corporate already has a number of “low prices benefits” boosted by easy retailer layouts and enormous scale, UBS stated. Costco shares are up 7.6% 12 months so far after dropping almost 20% in 2022. Financial institution of America is one other “time for high quality” inventory on the UBS checklist, which highlights earnings per share development and profitability. The agency famous that a few of the macro-economic headwinds might hinder current income development, the continued climb in borrowing charges might assist stem the broader unfavorable traits. Different shares that made UBS’ checklist embrace Merck , American Specific, Oracle and Lockheed Martin. — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.