The scion of Thailand’s most well-known political dynasty, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, is heading into normal elections on Sunday vowing to wrest the south-east Asian nation again from nearly a decade of navy rule.

“We’re going to assist one another to take again our democracy, to take again our lives,” Shinawatra, 36, advised a Bangkok stadium embellished together with her celebration’s signature purple color final month.

Shinawatra is searching for a sweeping victory that will make all of it however unattainable for her to be denied victory below the nation’s complicated election guidelines. Over the previous decade, south-east Asia’s second-biggest economic system has been beset by navy takeovers and violent crackdowns. Given the Thai navy’s affect in neighbouring international locations, the end result of Sunday’s ballot may also have ramifications throughout the area.

“This election in Thailand is deeply consequential,” mentioned Thitinan Pongsudhirak, director of the Institute of Safety and Worldwide Research at Chulalongkorn College in Bangkok, pointing to a “battle between autocracy and democracy” throughout the area.

Shinawatra solely joined politics in earnest final yr, and her candidacy is seen by some as a precursor to a fair higher political earthquake: the return of her father, the exiled billionaire media magnate and populist former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who was deposed in a coup d’état in 2006.

The Shinawatras are reviled by the nation’s highly effective navy and royalist institution however stay beloved by a piece of the general public, particularly within the rural northern heartlands, for poverty alleviation insurance policies resembling a $1-per-visit common healthcare programme.

Thaksin “modified the sport”, mentioned Pongsudhirak. He “made the coverage platform deliverable, and he delivered . . . the celebration grew to become so highly effective that it grew to become a problem to the established centres of energy”.

The incumbent, former junta head Prayuth Chan-ocha, seized energy in 2014 by unseating Yingluck Shinawatra, Thaksin’s sister and one other former prime minister, earlier than refashioning himself as a civilian chief.

Human rights teams have criticised him for repressing dissent and crushing youth-led protests in 2020 that referred to as for limits on Thailand’s monarchy. Human Rights Watch has accused him of a “blanket disregard for human rights”. He has additionally revived prosecutions below the lèse majesté regulation, which carries a sentence of as much as 15 years for insulting the monarchy.

Regardless of worldwide opprobrium, Prayuth received disputed polls in 2019 and is working once more on the promise of continuity, although he’s restricted to serving till 2025 below the military-backed structure’s time period limits.

“Will you belief an previous captain with appreciable expertise like me or a younger pilot to fly this plane?” he not too long ago requested supporters.

Prayuth’s file was additional tarnished by the pandemic, which hit Thailand’s exports and tourism-dependent economic system significantly onerous. The resumption of worldwide journey, significantly from China, is predicted to enhance the outlook, however a resilient baht has weakened exporters.

Authorities estimates put financial development at simply 2.7 to three.7 per cent for 2023. The marketing campaign has became a contest of populist pledges totalling tens of billions of {dollars}, from elevating wages and pensions to subsidies and money handouts.

Prayuth is trailing in opinion polls, however he might be helped by the truth that the navy institution has an efficient veto on the prime minister. The 250 junta-appointed senators vote alongside the 500-member decrease home, which means the opposition must safe at the very least 376 seats.

The destiny of Shinawatra’s Pheu Thai, which is concentrating on about 310 seats, might depend upon the Transfer Ahead celebration, which has surged on the again of help from younger and concrete voters, with its prime minister candidate not too long ago outpolling Paetongtarn Shinawatra. However its progressive politics make it a clumsy bedfellow for Pheu Thai — Transfer Ahead has referred to as for sweeping reforms, most notably to the lèse majesté regulation, and for ending conscription.

The Transfer Ahead platform quantities to “a paradigm shift”, mentioned Pongsudhirak. “It’s not nearly recognising the poor and addressing inequality, it’s about structural reforms to the normal establishments that run Thailand.”

Pheu Thai has equivocated on overhauling the structure or curbing the monarchy, doubtlessly leaving the door open to different coalition companions. The ruling Palang Pracharath celebration is backing Prayuth’s deputy, former military chief Prawit Wongsuwan, whereas Prayuth is working on the helm of the newly fashioned United Thai celebration.

“It’s unattainable for Pheu Thai to type a one-party authorities,” mentioned Punchada Sirivunnabood, affiliate professor of political science at Thailand’s Mahidol College. She added that to safe the senate’s help, the celebration confronted a alternative of “the 2 generals, both Prayuth or Prawit”.

On Sunday, Paetongtarn Shinawatra dominated out co-operating with Palang Pracharath in a last-ditch effort to shore up her celebration’s help base. However an alliance between the Shinawatra camp and Transfer Ahead might elevate the danger of navy or judicial intervention.

“There’s a mounting probability of some sort of unrest as a result of if these numbers prove the best way the polls counsel, Transfer Ahead’s sturdy displaying might be very tough for the established centres of energy to tolerate,” mentioned Pongsudhirak.

In the meantime, Thaksin Shinawatra, who has lived in self-imposed exile in Dubai since 2008, has vowed to return regardless of going through quite a few corruption-related convictions. He and Pheu Thai have denied that his daughter’s candidacy is designed to rearrange a pardon. However the military-royalist camp’s bête noire has weighed in on the election from overseas.

Thaksin, 73, on Wednesday reiterated his intention to return to Thailand however added the explanation was to satisfy his seventh grandchild, whom Paetongtarn gave delivery to final week. “See you quickly,” he wrote on Twitter.