Lengthy-time Tesla bear Toni Sacconaghi forsees extra turbulent occasions forward for the electrical car maker on the heels of its annual shareholder assembly. “Elon Musk reiterated a number of occasions that the subsequent 12 months can be troublesome for Tesla, and attributed his warning to macro points, which is inconsistent with the relative constructive outlook for the broader auto business,” the Bernstein analyst wrote Wednesday in a word to shoppers. “We imagine Tesla’s challenges as a substitute stem from its restricted mannequin lineup, and that 2024 could possibly be much more difficult.” On the annual assembly Tuesday, CEO Elon Musk vowed to ship Tesla’s first Cybertrucks in 2023, whereas sharing expectations for a rocky financial system forward. Following the occasion, Musk instructed CNBC’s David Faber that he believes the Federal Reserve could also be too gradual to decrease rates of interest within the close to time period and defended a few of his closely criticized tweets. In keeping with Sacconaghi, a lot of Tesla’s challenges come from its restricted mannequin lineup and “unrealistically aggressive” ambitions for its Mannequin 3 and Mannequin Y and their addressable markets. “Tesla’s quantity purpose was for Mannequin 3 + Y to be 3-4M items collectively, which might have represented almost 50% of world market share of their classes – unrealistic in our view, given how extremely fragmented the worldwide auto market is and the truth that a big share of the potential patrons stay skeptical of EVs and should not prone to swap from ICE within the close to time period,” he famous. The long-time Tesla bear retained his underperform score and $150 worth goal on shares, reflecting about 10% draw back from Tuesday’s shut. Shares added almost 4% on Wednesday, constructing on their greater than 39% acquire 12 months to this point. Bernstein additionally views plans to launch and scale a brand new excessive quantity mannequin earlier than 2025 overly optimistic, noting that manufacturing ramp for the corporate’s Cybertruck has already been pushed out two years. TSLA YTD mountain Tesla shares in 2023 Elsewhere, the analyst stays “skeptical” of bullish commentary on Tesla’s Optimus robotic and its long-term contribution to the corporate’s worth, citing “unbelievable technical complexity” and prices. Plans for the corporate’s full self-driving capabilities marks one other space of concern. Regardless of expectations by Musk for FSD acceleration, regulatory and client obstacles may take years to clear, Sacconaghi mentioned. “Musk conceded that technical enhancements in FSD are non-linear, requiring fixed architectural redesign, seemingly making incremental enhancements more and more troublesome,” he added. — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed reporting
